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Italy’s accelerated reform efforts, together with low funding costs and a primary surplus, mitigate the impact of the economy’s return to recession on Italy’s creditworthiness and justify a stable outlook on the Baa2 sovereign rating, says Moody’s Investors Service in a report published today.
The rating agency’s report is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.
Moody’s notes that recent credit developments with respect to the Italian sovereign show a mixed picture. On the negative side, the Italian economy fell back into recession in the second quarter, with disappointing economic data reflecting both demand-side weaknesses in Italy and long-standing structural impediments to growth.
Moreover, high-frequency indicators suggest sustained weak economic activity, as reflected in a decline in business confidence since May, and a fall in the composite purchasing managers’ index below the no-change 50 mark. In light of Q2 data, Moody’s now forecasts that the Italian economy will contract by 0.3% in 2014, before growing marginally by 0.5% in 2015.
